Burn the non witches

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Burn the non witches

Postby pip » Tue Oct 23, 2012 9:00 am

So scientists involved in forecasting worldwide are now trembling in their boots. The world has turned full circle. 300 years ago you were burned as a witch if you could see the future. Now your jailed for not being to see the future.
The jailing of the Italian scientists for not getting a forecast 100% right but using probabilities is bloody scary.
Our department run two forecasting models , one for Tiadal storm surge and the other for flash flooding.
So do we only release anything when its a dead certainty or just shut up shop now :roll:
If this sticks it could set back science in Italy and beyond by years.
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Re: Burn the non witches

Postby Tonyblack » Tue Oct 23, 2012 9:25 am

I heard about this. It's crazy and reminds me of Galileo somehow. :?
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Re: Burn the non witches

Postby pip » Tue Oct 23, 2012 9:33 am

Its a dangerous precedent. Anyone with half a brain knows its impossible to predict an earthquake accurately and it seems the main charge for these guys was that they weren't clear enough on the chance of an after shock :roll: Now all the work put into earthquake , volcanoe and Tsunami forecasting could be knocked back by this idiot judge :roll:
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Re: Burn the non witches

Postby michelanCello » Tue Oct 23, 2012 9:45 am

This really is creepy... what judge could do such thing? And on what ground?? :?
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Re: Burn the non witches

Postby pip » Tue Oct 23, 2012 9:46 am

They went for the whole bereaved relatives approach which had nothing to do with the science behind the predictions
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Re: Burn the non witches

Postby Quatermass » Tue Oct 23, 2012 9:51 am

Yeah, it's a suit with a dangerous direction, but if they can take any moral home, then it is to be better to overestimate the chances of something like that happening than to underestimate.

Not that they will. Maybe this is a sign of the end times. :?
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Re: Burn the non witches

Postby pip » Tue Oct 23, 2012 9:56 am

Sadly Q you're wrong on the overestimate. Doing this leads to more trouble . In flooding we were told to go on the side of overestimation for predictions but this has resulted in many people being refused household insurance causing untold trouble. The same applies for lots of predictions . even if nothing happens someone will sue for wasting emergency services time or something similar. Swing one way or the other you're in a legal hell potentially .
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Re: Burn the non witches

Postby Quatermass » Tue Oct 23, 2012 10:13 am

pip wrote:Sadly Q you're wrong on the overestimate. Doing this leads to more trouble . In flooding we were told to go on the side of overestimation for predictions but this has resulted in many people being refused household insurance causing untold trouble. The same applies for lots of predictions . even if nothing happens someone will sue for wasting emergency services time or something similar. Swing one way or the other you're in a legal hell potentially .


Well, then. The human race is pants-on-head mentally challenged, to put it very politely. Not that I didn't know this already, it's just that my opinion has once more sunk to a new low I didn't think it could.
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Re: Burn the non witches

Postby pip » Tue Oct 23, 2012 10:32 am

Quatermass wrote:
pip wrote:Sadly Q you're wrong on the overestimate. Doing this leads to more trouble . In flooding we were told to go on the side of overestimation for predictions but this has resulted in many people being refused household insurance causing untold trouble. The same applies for lots of predictions . even if nothing happens someone will sue for wasting emergency services time or something similar. Swing one way or the other you're in a legal hell potentially .


Well, then. The human race is pants-on-head mentally challenged, to put it very politely. Not that I didn't know this already, it's just that my opinion has once more sunk to a new low I didn't think it could.

Pretty much . Sadly theres no allowance for probability and logic anymore .
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Re: Burn the non witches

Postby chris.ph » Tue Oct 23, 2012 10:56 am

this is bloody ridiculous, sent the judge a crystal ball then send him down when he cant predict an earthquake, hasnt he heard of chaos theory or to the layman a spanner in the works. we know that there are no definates in this life unless its a million to one chance.
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Re: Burn the non witches

Postby Quatermass » Tue Oct 23, 2012 11:08 am

chris.ph wrote:this is bloody ridiculous, sent the judge a crystal ball then send him down when he cant predict an earthquake, hasnt he heard of chaos theory or to the layman a spanner in the works. we know that there are no definates in this life unless its a million to one chance.


And even that is only a nine times out of ten proposition. :?
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Re: Burn the non witches

Postby Tonyblack » Tue Oct 23, 2012 11:14 am

I'm sure the Vatican sent an earthquake warning . . . didn't they? After all, such disasters are considered an act of God and if anyone knows what God has planned it should be the Pope. :roll: ;)

We are going to get either of two situations if this sort of thing becomes the norm. Either scientists will abandon such fields as earthquake prediction because of the fear of litigation, or; scientists will over-predict and give warnings for any slight possibility of a quake for fear of getting blamed if they don't. Neither scenarios is ideal or desirable.
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Re: Burn the non witches

Postby Dotsie » Tue Oct 23, 2012 11:19 am

But the Italians know that science doesn't have all the answers, that's why they have religion.

I confidently predict that this will be overturned :shifty:
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Re: Burn the non witches

Postby Tonyblack » Tue Oct 23, 2012 11:20 am

:lol: That smiley doesn't look very confident!
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Re: Burn the non witches

Postby Dotsie » Tue Oct 23, 2012 11:21 am

That's because I'm not religious! :lol:
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