Assassins Whowozzit Game - ABANDONED!

[Willem]

It's called lazy creativeness. Sir.

So, we've lost the most experienced players in round one, and both of them innocent to boot.
Let's look at the odds again shall we?
At the start we had 4 new players and 6 that played before. If Sir did at completely random draw on the killers, there are 45 possible combos (first choice can be done out of 10 people, second out of 9. You've got 10*90 = 90 combinations but have to divide by two to weed out the doubles (Jan+Dot/Dot+Jan is the same combination).

Out of those 45 combinations, there are:
4*3/2 = 6 pairings of two newbies
6*5/2 = 15 pairings of two veterans
6*4 = 24 pairings of a fresh blood/rusted old fogie platter.
Making it most likely that we had a sassy young assassin under the guidance of a bloodstained mentor.

However, we've got some more information now. We're down to 4/4.
There are 8 people left, so 8*7/2=28 pairings.
Still 6 pairings of two newbies,
Also 6 pairings of two veterans
and 4*4 = 16 pairings of one of each.

How does this help us in voting? Well, it helps a bit. It's most likely (16 out of 28, 57%) that we've got a mixed bag in the killers. One old, one new.
If the killers' plan is to weed out the experienced players and wreak havoc in the aftermath, the innocents should try and do their best and keep them in, right? That's why I plan on voting out a new player this round.
Big Daddy and Bikkit aren't posting. For Bikkit, that's par for the course. Big Daddy is an unknown. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and say he's innocent.
Del's crazy, we all know that, so if she's a killer I'd rather keep her in to mess up the other killer's head
So that leaves Raisindot and Simstars.

Open call to Raisindot and Simstars: convince me of your innocence! Best excuse wins not getting my vote

[Sjoerd3000]

I think that last post is very suspicous

So my first vote goes to Willem! 8)

[Dotsie]

I'm inclined to agree, particularly since Willem has such lovely long lashes at the moment and...

...one of my false eyelashes is missing!!!

Aargh! The killers-slash-women's cosmetics thieves are at it again!!

[Dotsie]

Hack...hawk...gak!!...ptooey...

OK, I just coughed up the false eyelashes

[raisindot]

Willem--

Willem, you're sounding awfully Jan-like. Best be careful...loudmouths and rulesdiscussers don't seem to win friends and longevity around here, whether we think they're the killer or not.



Poisondot

[Willem]

Willem--

Willem, you're sounding awfully Jan-like.

I've got my own brand of weirdness, thankyouverymuch!

[Willem]

Looks like the Guild's Igor used Dotsie's head for a good cause!


I've been thinking about the vote-off and I know you all want more numbers.
We had 3 non-active posters (before Dotsie replacing Del) and 5 active ones. Assuming the non-active posters are not really playing for whatever reason, we know for sure that there's at least one killer among the 5 posters since someone got killed last night phase.
So we really should vote off one of the active ones this round.
Voting off on of the 3 inactive one works to our benefit if:
there are 2 killers among the 3 inactives: we've got a 66.67% chance of removing a killer to our advantage.
If there's 1 killer among them, there's a 33.33% chance of us getting an advantage.
And for completeness sake, if they all are innocent we've got a 0% chance of us getting lucky.

If the inactive players are really not participating sneakily we must discount the first scenario. So let's see how big the chances are of both.
The chance of there being no killers among the three is 35.7%. The chance of there being one is 53.6%. 10.7% chance of both killers being in there. but as said before, not possible on the assumption they're all otherwise occupied. With some more fancy math if we vote off one of the three non-players, we should expect to be lucky 20% of the time. That's not much.

How often will we get a killer if we vote among the active players?
There are either 1 or 2 killers among us.
Chance of having two is 35.7%, of having one is 53.6% and having zero is 10.7%.
Chance of hitting a killer when there's two of them is 40%, and 20% if there's just one.
This leads to a probability of getting a killer 37% of the time if we vote in the active player group consisting of MC, Sjoerd, Raisindot, Simstars and
myself.

In all honesty: I'm not complety sure I did this right, but I'll sleep on it and get back to you. The numbers might change a bit, but not much: assuming there's at least one killer among them, voting off an active player gives us the best chances!

[Dotsie]

I know who I'm voting for and I'll tell you why - mC voted for Willem the last round for no better reason than he voted for her.

Surely the only reason to vote for someone should be that you think they're a killer? Unless you already know who the killers are!

Therefore, I vote for mC

BTW, I'm an active player now as DelDotsie, until Del gets back (if she wants to carry on). I'm only mentioning this as Willem didn't include me in his active player list, not because I want people voting for me!

[Willem]

I had included you at first, but since the murder in the night phase took place during Del's absence, I had to exclude you from the math-mess.

[michelanCello]

I know who I'm voting for and I'll tell you why - mC voted for Willem the last round for no better reason than he voted for her.

Surely the only reason to vote for someone should be that you think they're a killer? Unless you already know who the killers are!

Therefore, I vote for mC

BTW, I'm an active player now as DelDotsie, until Del gets back (if she wants to carry on). I'm only mentioning this as Willem didn't include me in his active player list, not because I want people voting for me!

We didn't have a killer in "yesterday", so please do tell me who I was supposed to look for... But as you wish...

Willem, you're a maths teacher, are you not? I've never had any maths skills at all, even though my mother and grandmother were also maths teachers Still, - and correct me if I'm wrong - I think you said in a really long post that there's as much chance that there's 1, 2 or 0 killlers among the "newbies" as among the ones who already played this game, which is quite oblivious, because there's 4-4 of us. I have to agree with Sjoerd that writing this in so many words is quite suspicious...
Therefore my first vote goes to Willem too...

[Willem]

Fair enough, you're right that the odds in my first snoozefest didn't really add up to much. However, I stand by the second long, long boring post: is that the odds tell us it's best to vote for one of the 5 people active before last night phase.
Which you took to heart. Now change your mind and pick one of the killers, thank you

[raisindot]

I'm feelin' a little guilty for leading the voting charge against the other bigmouth, Jan-the-Killer. Besides, if we vote off all the loudmouths, this place is going to get very quiet and dull.

Speaking of quiet and dull, I'm kind of wondering where our 'wallflowers' Bikkit and Big Daddy are these days. Maybe they're just tired of this whole thing, or maybe they're quietly vanishin' into the shadows hoping no one will notice their murderous work. In either case, they're not pullin' their weight, postwise.

People have said that Bikkit's a kid, so I don't want him (her) to think that us old fogies are trying to toss out the young. Because of this, my first vote is to accuse (drum roll) Big Daddy.

[poohcarrot]

There will be a special edition of the Ankh-Morpork Times published shortly. Please read it, because things are not as they seem.

[poohcarrot]

THE ANKH-MORPORK TIMES
The truth will make you fret

Professor Pooh's Puzzling Polyjuice Potion Problem
By S. Crisplock

Press release from Professor Pooh Garotte

It has just been discovered that it wasn't Dotsie who was killed, but Big Daddy. Using Polyjuice Potion (copyright JKR) obtained from a wizzard, Big Daddy foolishly became Dotsie, a mistake that proved to be fatal.

Dotsie is not dead and will continue to participate. So will Del, whenever she's ready.

Big Daddy was innocent and had no role to play.

Whether Dotsie is innocent or guilty is up to you to discover.

[Dotsie]

Even I don't get it.